The question is no longer whether the war will expand. It has. The next few days will tell us whether the war stabilises around Hormuz or whether the Strait itself becomes the trigger for a far larger rupture. What to watch for over the next 48 hours is simple: Any move by the US toward direct naval control of the Strait; any credible Iranian attempt to disrupt or mine shipping lanes and, critically, whether energy infrastructure in the Gulf continues to be targeted.If those lines are crossed in tandem, the war will no longer be containable within the region.
...is a way out, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War. What the indefinite extension produces is a prolonged condition of not-war-not-peace, in which oil markets cannot stabilise, Asian refineries cannot plan, European governments cannot stop subsidising consumption they cannot afford, and the next flashpoint -- a seized tanker, a miscalculated drone strike, a Truth Social post that claims too much -- is one news cycle away.
'On behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I express gratitude and appreciation for my dear brothers HE Prime Minister of Pakistan Sharif and HE Field Marshal Munir for their tireless efforts to end the war in the region.'
Taking Kharg would give the US control over virtually all of Iran's oil exports and thus provide significant leverage, notes Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War. It would also put American troops within range of Iran's remaining missiles, drones, and artillery on a piece of real estate that is just eight square miles in size, and just 15 miles from the Iranian mainland.
'The White House lunch that Trump hosted for Munir last year came just after Munir returned from a visit to Iran, at a moment when Israel and Iran were at war.' 'Trump said after that lunch that the Pakistanis know Iran very well. He likely views Munir as a useful interlocutor that can give helpful insights on Iran.'
The 'rescue' operation occurred within kilometres of Iran's underground tunnel complex at Isfahan, assessed by the IAEA and US intelligence as holding a substantial portion of the country's 60 per cent enriched uranium stockpile. Retired senior US military officers have highlighted that the mission's footprint -- hundreds of special operators, multiple heavy-lift aircraft deep inside Iran -- appears outsized for recovering a single airman. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
A Pakistani man with ties to Iran has been convicted in a US court for plotting to assassinate former US President Donald Trump and other American politicians.
The question is whether the clocks allow enough time for two deeply mistrustful sides to get there, and whether the surface calm holds long enough for the paddling to produce something before the ceasefire ends on April 22, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
By all available indications, the White House drafted a face-saving note and handed it, ready-made, to Islamabad. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was supposed to then post it in the guise of a plea urging Trump to extend the deadline by two weeks 'to allow diplomacy to run its course'. Trump would then graciously accept Pakistan's 'request' and declare a ceasefire. Sharif dutifully posted the message on X. Except that he, or whoever was handling the account, forgot to delete the tell-tale first line visible in the edit history: 'Draft - Pakistan's PM Message on X'. Prem Panicker's must read blog on the Iran War.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt noted that progress has been made in the Geneva talks with Iranian authorities, but the two nations stand 'far apart' on certain issues.
Quoting assembly of experts member Mirbaqeri, the report stated that while a "majority consensus over Khamenei's successor has been reached," the transition process is not yet fully complete as "some obstacles regarding the process need to be resolved."
Iran's participation in this year's World Cup has been called into question after co-hosts the United States launched joint air strikes at the country along with Israel at the weekend.
The pause gives the US time to breathe, to regroup, to move its expeditionary force into position without risk of interception along the way. It gives Iran nothing -- on the ground, attacks against its infrastructure continue apace. Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
The intriguing bit is that Trump is likely to attend the talks in Islamabad this weekend -- if he does, it will be the clearest signal yet that the US is ready to exit the war with some sort of win to show, since he cannot afford to go for the talks and return empty-handed, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War
'Strikes into the Gulf countries are proof that the security guarantees offered by the US are ineffective and that the Gulf countries cannot rely on American security assurances for their safety.'
The escalating conflict involving the U.S. and Israel with Iran has led to widespread disruption in the world of sports, with events postponed, travel plans thrown into chaos, and athletes seeking asylum.
A senior Iranian official has stated that Iran has not yet elected a successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Syed Ali Khamenei, following his assassination. The process to elect a new leader is underway, with several candidates being considered.
Economist Jeffrey Sachs saw Gulf nations' decision to partner with the US through the Abraham Accords as an "invitation for disaster" as it made them more dependent on American protection.
In a further escalation of the assault on the heavily fortified site, a missile strike also reportedly targeted the "helipad" at the embassy, as documented by Al Jazeera.
Iranian state media reports that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Ali Khamenei, has been appointed as Iran's new Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts, a move criticised by US President Donald Trump.
If the Iranian regime needs to be punished for promoting quasi-terrorist outfits like Hezbollah and Hamas, then what about Pakistan which has spent decades exporting terror around the world, killing thousands, particularly in Afghanistan and India? asks M R Narayan Swamy.
It may now be time to question the price India is paying for Israel's disregard of the serious undermining of India's energy security, asserts former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
Israel has for more than two decades and several US presidencies worked to draw the United States into a full-scale war with Iran. Having finally achieved that, the last thing it wants is Trump declaring victory and going home, as he is prone to do. Ali Larijani was the figure most capable of handing Trump a negotiated exit with something to show for it. Without Larijani, the road to an exit gets considerably narrower. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
The United States, which entered this war in expectation of a short, sharp win along the Venezuela model, is now preparing for deeper involvement in a conflict it does not fully control, without the allies it typically relies on, against an adversary that is not behaving as expected, in a global environment that is already absorbing economic shock. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Congress leader Shashi Tharoor is urging the Indian government to take a more proactive role in mediating the escalating conflict between the US-Israel alliance and Iran, emphasising the impact on India's energy security and regional stability.
'We have lost 70-80 per cent of our business from foreign guests.'
Despite President Trump's optimistic prediction of a swift resolution to the ongoing conflict with Iran, Tehran dismisses any possibility of diplomatic breakthroughs, citing deep distrust and highlighting the complexities of US-Iran relations.
When missiles fly in this region, they are never just aimed at military targets.
Following US and Israeli strikes in Iran, reports have surfaced questioning the wellbeing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, prompting a swift denial from Iranian officials and condemnation of the military action.
Although extensive air attacks have been carried out to destroy most of Iran's defence capabilities, the latter's resilience and sustenance during the war clearly indicate that the US landing force would encounter severe resistance in the operation, explains Commodore Venugopal Vengalil (retd).
To be sure, Trump is furious, as the trajectory of the war is in a state of Zugzwang, as chess players call it. Trump and Netanyahu stare at two choices -- retreat in humiliation and concede Tehran's demands -- recognition of its rights, reparations, and binding security guarantees -- or perish in a quagmire, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'The entire US ecosystem built over decades at the bases in the Gulf region, especially the UAE, costing trillions of dollars have been decimated, dealing a mortal blow to the US Central Command's war capability,' points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Despite Iran allowing 'non-hostile vessels' through the Strait of Hormuz, marine insurance premiums are expected to remain elevated due to persistent high-risk classifications and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with experts cautioning that the threat of attacks and collateral damage still exists.
'India's ties with Israel have to do with defence and general technology.' 'The war changes nothing in what India and Israel hope to get from the relationship.' 'It's not as though India will get significantly more benefits from Iran if India abandons Israel at this time.'
This weekend, Donald Trump has begun to say the quiet part out loud -- that he wants to take control of Iran's oil, a formulation more in line with his robber-baron style of international relations.
According to information shared with students, those enrolled at Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Iran University of Medical Sciences, and Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences have been offered two evacuation routes -- either through Armenia or Azerbaijan.
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh assures India's energy security amidst West Asia tensions, highlighting naval protection of tankers and readiness to counter cross-border terrorism.
Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey met in Islamabad in what analysts say is the formal opening of a new diplomatic formation that could reshape the post-war regional order. Their immediate goal is a ceasefire; their larger ambition is to ensure that neither Iran nor Israel emerges from this war in a dominant position. Pakistan's foreign minister then flew directly to Beijing and mooted a Chinese role as guarantor of any eventual agreement. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
The BJP has criticised the Congress party for allegedly prioritising its vote bank and outdated ideologies over India's national interest and citizen safety in its foreign policy approach towards Iran.
The purge in Washington does not pause the war. Strikes continue, Hormuz remains closed, and Brent crude is still dancing around $109 a barrel. For India, the command chaos in the Pentagon is another layer of uncertainty piled on five weeks of conflict that was already straining every buffer Delhi has.
